The coming governorship election in Kogi State, slated for November 11 this year, is pointing to ethnic contests in which the electorate may vote for their kinsmen.

From the outcome of the governorship primaries held in April, this year, the race has devolved into ethnic contest with the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) producing Alhaji Usman Ododo, from Kogi Central Senatorial District, which has the Ebira, as the dominant ethnic group, while the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) ticket went to Senator Dino Melaye of Okun ethnic group of Kogi West Senatorial District.

The district also has a strong contender in Leke Abejide of the African Democratic Congress (ADC), whose party clinched two of the three Federal Constituencies in Kogi West and a seat in the Kogi State House of Assembly at the February/March polls. Also, in contention from Kogi West is the young, vibrant entrepreneur, Olayinka Braimoh of the Action Alliance (AA).
Although Alhaji Muri Ajaka, who represents the Social Democratic Party (SDP), is one of the seven candidates from Kogi East (Igala/Bassa), he is widely regarded as the ‘consensus’ candidate from the zone.

Usman Ododo and the incumbency factor
After eight years rule of his kinsman, Governor Yahaya Bello, Alhaji Usman Ododo, the APC candidate from Kogi Central, is treading the path of a possible additional eight years rule of the Ebira.

He is believed to be comfortable in Kogi Central, his homestead, where he is the sole candidate. No other political party has fielded a candidate from that zone, which accounted for half of the winning votes for the APC in the 2019 election. Ododo may also have the incumbency factor working in his favour, as he is counting on the overwhelming support of Governor Bello, political office holders and APC structures across the three senatorial districts, as well as the anticipated Federal might.

At the last count, his camp has won more converts from the main opposition PDP, especially from Kogi West. Some prominent politicians, who used to call the shots in the PDP, lately have been falling over themselves in wide endorsement of the APC candidate.

Kogi State Forum of Education Secretaries, has, however, applauded his choice of running mate in Comrade Joel Salifu Oyibo, a primary school teacher from Kogi East, as the “right choice for the ordinary people.”

Ododo served as state’s Auditor General in charge of councils. Hence, choosing Oyibo as his running mate is also seen as a subtle means of placating primary school teachers and local government workers in the state, who have had to cope with irregular and percentile wages in the seven years life of the administration.

Smart Adeyemi’s factor and aftermath APC primaries
The failure of the anticipated power shift arrangement in the APC’s choice of candidate is still a factor in the campaign. The Okuns have been agitating that after eight years rule of the Ebira power should shift to them. This did not happen, as Ododo, another Ebira, got Bello’s nod as APC flagbearer.

However, the decision did not go down well with some party leaders from Kogi West, notably Senator Adeyemi, one of the aggrieved participants in the disputed APC governorship primaries.

Party sources said Adeyemi’s continued silence has been a source of concern to Ododo and Kogi APC. He is in court challenging the emergence of Ododo as APC candidate.

His stand was that the primary election, which produced Ododo ran foul of Section 177 of the 1999 Constitution and also contrary to Section 29 and 84 of the Electoral Act, as well as Article 20 of the APC constitution.

Speaking to The Guardian, Dr. Tom Ohikere, publisher of APC News Online, said: “If my party, APC, must win the forthcoming governorship election in Kogi State, a lot still needs to be done. For example, the party should stop the ongoing pseudo support modification and do honest reconciliation and realignment of stakeholders and leadership. The party must also start a result-oriented public engagement, particularly, in Kogi East, where there seems to be problems. The party must also stop this uncoordinated and disjointed approach to campaigns. The cases in court by Senator Smart Adeyemi and one Achimugu are very bad.”

The Leke Abejide phenomenon
In Kogi West, it is believed that the PDP will struggle to maintain its status as the main opposition party on ground, particularly, in the Okun area, which has five councils, namely Kabba-Bunu, Ijumu, Yagba East, Yagba West and Mopa-Moro.

Reason being the upset created by the ADC in the February/March elections, winning two of the three federal constituencies and one state assembly seat, and leaving the PDP empty. That feat of the ADC left the party as the second best, after the ruling APC, which took the Senate, one Reps seat and seven House of Assembly seats in Kogi West Senatorial District.

Abejide’s popularisation of the ADC from obscurity started with his first election in 2019 as member of House of Representatives for Yagba Federal Constituency.

The ADC is now a household party with followers in the entire Okunland, Kogi West and the state as a whole.
His selling point, which is payment of WAEC fees for senior secondary school final year students in his constituency for the fifth year running, was recently extended to Kabba/Bunu/Ijumu Federal Constituency, with a promise of further extension of the gesture to the entire state in October.

This and other performances of the two terms Rep like construction of roads and drainages and the various empowerment programmes he initiated in his constituency, has caught the fancy of the electorate in other parts of the state.
His decision to pick former President, Nigerian Medical Association (NMA), and Association of Professional Bodies of Nigeria (APBN), Dr Idris Omede, from Dekina, the largest council in Kogi East, is seen as a ‘masterstroke’, to woo professionals and Igala supporters.

James Faleke as rallying point
Leke Abejide is a self-acclaimed ‘Tinubu’s son’, having campaigned vigorously for President Bola Tinubu before and during the presidential election.
He launched and funded the Asiwaju Confluence Campaign Organisation (ACCO’23). He donated SUVs to the 21local councils and zonal coordinators capped with a campaign office, a beautiful edifice built for Tinubu/Shetima presidential campaign at Lokoja, the state capital.

Though they belonged to different political parties. Also, Abejide is a close ally of Hon James Faleke, deputy governorship candidate of the APC in the 2015 Kogi governorship election. Faleke’s influence in Kogi State APC cannot be underestimated, as loyalists of the Abubakar Audu/James Faleke joint ticket of 2015 governorship election have remained a formidable force.

Although he declined pressure to participate, even after nomination and intent forms were purchased for him by supporters, prior to the APC governorship primaries, Faleke in April lent his voice to the issue of power shift in the state, saying it was the turn of Kogi West to produce next governor “for equity, justice and fairness.”

The Guardian gathered that Ododo is leaving no stone unturned to secure the support of the Faleke camp, after the botched power shift arrangement.
Towards this end, a joint committee with members drawn from the mainstream Kogi APC and loyalists of Faleke, is said to have been meeting to fine-tune ways to resolve past issues between the two APC camps.

Back in 2015, the governorship-winning mandate of Abubakar Audu and his running mate, Faleke, had been transferred to Yahaya Bello, upon Audu’s death, while coasting to victory.

In a controversial decision, Bello was awarded the mandate ahead of Faleke on the ground that Bello had participated and came second in the APC primaries preceding that election. Bello went on to win a second term in the 2019 election.

Now, ahead of the November 2023 polls, a member of the ‘Independent Media’, an arm of Abubakar Audu/James Faleke group told The Guardian that the thrust of the meetings between the Ododo and Faleke camps is to get Ododo’s commitment to power sharing in return for their support.

This, the source further disclosed, is to avoid the recurrence of the current winner-takes-all posture of the Bello-led APC government in the state, allegedly to the exclusion of Faleke’s men.

Asked if Faleke may be handicapped in his choices between APC and ADC, former House of Representatives member, a close ally of Faleke’s and member of the defunct APC/PCC, Duro Meseko told The Guardian: “I am not speaking on his behalf but I would say categorically that Faleke is a full-blooded APC Chieftain. You don’t expect him to go to Kogi State to campaign for candidates of other parties. That is very unlikely.”
Apparently sensing the unlikeliness of an open support of his candidature by President Tinubu and Faleke, Abejide appearing on a television live programme, wearing Tinubu’s cap logo as always, said “my only request from my father, our president, Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu is for a level playing field for all of us to test our popularity, and let the best candidate emerge democratically.”

Dino Melaye and PDP primaries albatross
The PDP candidate, Dino Melaye, needs no introduction. Undoubtedly, Melaye, a former Rep and senator, is the most experienced and known politician (within and beyond the shores of Kogi State) among the crop of candidates currently jostling for the 1901 Lugard House.

He is also flying the ticket of the main opposition PDP, with structures built over a period of 13 years that the party was in power in the state.
He would also count on the support of political dinosaurs in the likes of former Governor Ibrahim Idris, Senator Tunde Ogbeha, former Deputy Chief of Staff (Presidency), Prince Olusola Akanmode, former Attorney General of the Federation and Minister of Justice, Muhammed Adoke and PDP senatorial candidate in Kogi Central Senatorial District in the February 2023 polls, Natasha Akpoti-Iduaghan, among others.

Melaye, aside from banking on home support in Kogi West and the groundswell of support from the Ibrahim Idris-led PDP stalwarts in Kogi East, will also rely on Natasha Akpoti-Uduaghan’s strength to make inroads to Bello/Ododo/APC stronghold in Kogi Central.

In the February National Assembly polls, Natasha ‘lost’ to the APC candidate, Abubakar Ohere, albeit, in a controversial decision by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), currently under review at the election petitions tribunals.

Also in Kogi Central, APC’s strongest hold, considered “the lion’s den”, the PDP, under Akpoti-Uduaghan’s influence, also won the Reps election in Okehi/Adavi Federal constituency and Ogorimagongo State Assembly constituency.

Melaye’s running mate, Habeebat Deen, a female from Ankpa Council in Kogi East, was a member of Kogi State House of Assembly.

By choosing a female running mate, Senator Ogbeha said Melaye has shown his gender sensitivity. “It’s a divine choice. He has made a statement beyond Kogi State because it will generate a lot of interest, excitement and goodwill,” Ogbeha said.

However, pundits are of the view that the PDP as a party has to do more between now and November to stop the outward drift of membership occasioned by the controversial governorship primaries, which produced Melaye.

The PDP primary is alleged to have been skewed in favour of Melaye in collaboration with former Vice President Atiku Abubakar and the leadership of the PDP.

One of the aggrieved and vocal aspirants, former Deputy Governor Yomi Awoniyi has not been heard since after that episode.

Although Awoniyi, a foundation leader and major financier of the PDP in Kogi West has not indicated his intention to leave the PDP, some of his supporters have embraced candidates of other parties.

Olayinka Brahimo: New wine in new wine skin
The AA candidate, Olayinka Braimoh, a successful entrepreneur at 46 years old, started the governorship project without a party identity.
His reason: “You don’t put a new wine in an old wine skin, when you do that of course you know what happens- it bursts. Of course you must run on a party platform and you must choose a party that best suits your vision and you must work with the party, and the implications of our choice of AA for this election is the fact that people are more aware as to the importance of the vision of the candidate, the capacity of the candidate, the experience of the candidate, the ability of the candidate to be able to bring about a shift from the usual rhetoric to a situation where they can expect to see results to better the lives of the people.”

On power shift and chances of Kogi West due to multiple candidates, he said, “I’m an advocate of power shift. A shift from old, unproductive ways of doing things; a shift from poverty to wealth; a shift from the regular to new ideas; a shift from the usual that has not led us anywhere, to dare mighty things. So, that’s what I believe that power shift represents. From poverty to prosperity, from lack of vision to visionary leadership. And when you talk of the chances of Kogi West, I strongly believe our people are smart, they are educated, exposed and they know how to make the right decision when the time comes.”

Does AA stand a chance against the more established political parties going into the election? Does AA have structures in Kogi State? Braimoh replied: “When you speak about AA and structures in Kogi, I will say you speak based on what you know. I will speak from the point of what I know, and from the point of what I know, AA has structures in the 239 electoral wards and 21 councils in Kogi State; we have structures in the entire 3,508 polling units in the state.”

Murtala Ajaka’s Movement for Redemption
Kogi East produced three past governors in Abubakar Audu, Ibrahim Idris and Idris Wada, who grossed 18 years put together.
In general terms, if the zone peopled by the majority Igala/Bassa have any hope of reclaiming power in 2023, eight years after they lost their spot to the Ebira in Kogi Central, the SDP candidate, Murtala Ajaka holds the ace.

Ajaka’s team, however, holds the view that the redemption movement is not about achieving ethnic politics but reversing the “negative” trends of the seven-year-old APC rule in the state.
Until recently, Ajaka was a member of the APC National Working Committee (NWC) as Deputy National Publicity Secretary, and a gubernatorial aspirant (of APC).

However, allegedly ‘forced out’ of the governorship primaries of the APC, following runs of intraparty rivalry between him and Governor Yahaya Bello, he resigned his membership of the APC. He was subsequently adopted as the SDP governorship candidate.

No doubt, the SDP candidate is the strongest contender in the November election from Kogi East and most certainly to keep the APC on its toes across the state as November approaches. Reason being that Ajaka still commands followers in the ruling party despite crossing to SDP.

Aside from banking on the weight of the majority Igala/Bassa, he also picked his running mate, Sam Ranti Abenemi, a former Lokoja Council Chairman and grassroots politician from Lokoja, as running mate.

“The choice of Abenemi is the right thing to do knowing that the non-Okun speaking Lokoja and Kotonkarfe Federal Constituency in Kogi West, which has close to 40 percent of the registered voters of the zone, may not be relied upon to vote identically with the Okun.  Coupled with the fact that it is the first time Lokoja-Kotonkarfe councils will ever get such an opportunity in their entire existence,” a source in the SDP camp confided in The Guardian.

He said the SDP is comfortable in Lokoja and Ajaokuta Councils in Kogi West and Central, respectively, where the Igala share ethnic bonds.
Ajaka is also believed to be in President Tinubu’s good book. Prior to his departure to SDP, as APC NWC member, he was instrumental to the popularisation of the APC in Kogi East. In the run up to the presidential election, Ajaka donated 46 vehicles to zonal chairmen, council chairmen of the APC, as well as 21 council coordinators of the GYB Network for Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu campaign.

Notwithstanding that he is running on SDP platform, his contributions to the successes of the APC in Kogi and other states when he was deputy national publicity secretary, is believed to have earned him the backing of some sitting APC governors.

Although there are at least six other candidates from Kogi East district in the race, including the Accord Party candidate, a former Chief of Naval Staff, Vice Admiral Usman Jibrin, the Igalas are reputed for realigning their political interests during elections.

However, this projection, analysts believe, can only be accurate to the extent that the massive violence recorded in the 2019 governorship election adjudged as most violent and below global democratic standards both by local and foreign election monitors, does not reoccur.

Ahead of this year’s governorship election, Kogi political watchers hoped that the 2019 episode where thugs and alleged rogue security agents attacked voters from the ground while a helicopter attacked from the air does should be a thing of the past, with a Tinubu Presidency.

But with the renewed partisan hostilities, the recent highway convoys clash involving Governor Bello and Ajaka, which led major contenders into recriminations, recent protests at the Defence headquarters in Abuja by the nationalities of Igala/Bassa against alleged ethnic cleansing perpetrated by state-sponsored agents, that may be a tall order.
Season of endorsements

The palace of the Ohinoyi of Ebiraland, Alhaji Ado Ibrahim, the Chairman, Kogi Central and West Forum for Fairness, Equity and Justice, Prof Omeiza Aliyu, announcing the adoption of the ADC flagbearer, Abejide as the consensus candidate of the forum, declared that after eight years of Ebira rule, it was the turn of Kogi West to produce the governor of the state as supporting another candidate from Kogi Central will be tantamount to “greed, which the Ebira are not known for.”

He said, “the people of Kogi West played a major role in achieving the rotation of power to Kogi Central, they also supported the present government for eight years, and now it is the time for Kogi West to become the governor of Kogi. We have a good candidate that I strongly believe can perform well. Hon Abejide and his Deputy, Dr. Idris Omede from Dekina Council of Kogi East, which is very close to our hearts. I’m saying this because of what is going on in the state, people are saying how can you support someone from the West when our son is also in the race, I want to say unequivocally that the people of Ebira are not selfish, we are not greedy people, we are peace-loving people who believe in equity,” he said.

Prof. Aliyu appealed to the people of Kogi Central through the Ohinoyi of Ebiraland that the people of Kogi Central should jointly support the joint candidacy of Abejide and Omede to promote fairness, justice and equity in the state.

Abejide and Omede, a former President, Nigerian Medical Association (NMA), proceeded to the palace of the Obaro of Kabba and Chairman, Okun Area Traditional Council, Oba Bamidele Owoniyi.

The ADC governorship and deputy governorship candidates were earlier received at the palace of the Atta of Igala and Chairman, Kogi State Traditional Council of Chiefs, Matthew Opaluwa, Ogwuche-Akpa.
Earlier, on June 9, another interest group, Kogi State Central and West Forum, a body comprising notable indigenes of Kogi Central and West senatorial districts of Kogi State, said it had endorsed Senator Dino Melaye of the PDP as the consensus candidate for the November 11 governorship election in the state.

The group, chaired by former Vice Chancellor of the University of Abuja, Prof Nuhu Yakubu while the former chairman of Ogori/Mangogo local council, Hon Mathew Keyi, served as the secretary, claimed to have invited Melaye, the ADC candidate, Abejide and the Action Alliance (AA) candidate, Braimoh for an interview exercise to guide the forum on which of the candidates that is best suited for the endorsement.